Are Linux users on the rise?

Humans” want computers without “seeing” computers… Fed up with spiders of cables, ugly and heavy screens and keyboards…

That’s why tablets and smartphones are the big winners, they offer information and access to the web without cables, nor keyboards… just a screen that turns on… like the living room TV.

In the years to come, the battle of the “omnipresence” of computers will be played out…
The computer is present but we don’t see it…
It will be in the walls with the “glass computing” or in connected objects that emerge such as the Google Home or Alexa from Amazon.
See on the refrigerator screen, in the car or in the bathroom mirror…

This new method forces providers to equip themselves with data centers that will have to take over in order to perform the calculations necessary for the functioning of these objects.

In this approach: Total disappearance of the screen and the keyboard in favor of remote applications servers…. Microsoft has already lost the battle.
The connected objects are well and truly on Linux and their datacenter too…

So to answer the question:

Are the users on Linux in great increase?

It’s a certainty and with a double digit growth but we don’t see it.

Could it become the most used operating system in the next few years?

Yes, we could see the death of Microsoft.

But the future is not drawn… In computing, one person in his garage can revolutionize the whole world…. Bill Gates is the living proof.

I don’t have the exact data to provide an answer, but it seems doubtful to me, for several reasons.

According to this link

In April 2019, on desktops (we exclude mobiles, servers and embedded):

  1. Microsoft is galloping ahead with ~80% of the market share (half of which is with Windows 10, the other half with older versions).
  2. Apple holds ~15% of the market with MacOS
  3. GNU-Linux and ChromeOS (which is an OS based on a Linux kernel) share the remaining 5%.
  4. The rest is marginal, we can mention FreeBSD with a market share of 0.01%.

Microsoft is so far ahead, because they have agreements with the different manufacturers of “ready to use” desktop computers, so that they offer Windows. They also have agreements with schools, universities, different ministries of education around the world, to provide them with windows at a very low price, which will get users used to their system, and will push them to choose a windows equipped system when purchasing

This dominant position is also maintained by a feedback loop: Windows is the most used system by the general public, so publishers of consumer software (like video games) mainly target Windows, so the general public uses Windows to be able to use this software, so Windows is the most used system by the general public, etc.

Today, the Linux kernel is usable by the general public: GNU/Linux distributions such as Ubuntu, Linux-Mint or Mandriva, or Linux-based OSes such as ChromeOS, are meant to be accessible without the technical competence that was attributed to Linux users 15 years ago.

Even though various laws require computer manufacturers to also offer their computers without a paid OS, few people in the general public take advantage of this. The vast majority of people want a computer that works as soon as you take it out of the box and plug it in. This option is (usually) only available by taking a computer with Windows or with macOS. Apple doesn’t need to offer its computers without OS because MacOS is free (the user license, however, prohibits using it on hardware not provided by Apple).

For most of the public, the question is why install a new system, when the pre-installed system already meets the need? Especially since even if Linux is accessible, it still has the reputation of being a “must know” system. For this reason, and unless there is a major change in habits, I think it is doubtful that things will change much in the current market share distribution.

If we take into account mobile, servers and embedded, Linux is already in the lead, by far. Today, the majority of mobile devices (smartphones, tablets…) use Android, which is based on the Linux kernel. The vast majority of servers run on a version of GNU/Linux. In the remaining ones, Microsoft doesn’t even have the majority, which is taken over by the various UNIX systems. In terms of the number of terminals it is not much, but the entirety of today’s supercomputers run on a Linux or UNIX system. And almost all embedded systems use the Linux kernel.